DriftSBIRS High
SBIRS · Space Force · Lockheed Martin
+263%
$5.6B (1996) → $20.3B (2020)
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Baseline
$5.6B (1996)
Current estimate
$20.3B (2020)
Cost growth
+263%
Units
3 → 6
Quantity change
+100%
Unit-cost change
+81%
IOC
2002 (planned) → 2011 (first GEO)
Schedule slip
+9 yr
Cost basis
TY
Confidence
high · reconciled
+263% — FOUR Nunn-McCurdy unit-cost breaches over its life; first-satellite launch slipped ~9 years (2002 → 2011). Immature tech, unstable funding, underestimated software.
Documented events
- 2011First launch (+9 yr)
Source: GAO-21-105249 (2021): "grew ~260% from $5.6B (1996) to $20.3B (2020)"; then-year. Intermediate $17.7B is the Dec 2011 SBIRS SAR (then-year).
Drift — an independent project by Aous Abdo · Analytica DSS, built from public GAO, CRS and DoD sources. Cost growth has many causes; a larger number is not by itself evidence of mismanagement. How this is built · Explore the data →