Drift

Sentinel ICBM (LGM-35A)

Sentinel · Air Force · Northrop Grumman

+81% $77.7B (2020) → $140.9B (2024)
Sentinel ICBM (LGM-35A): cost trajectory from $77.7B in 2020 to $140.9B in 2024, +81% growth. Explore Sentinel interactively → Download 1-page brief (PDF)
Baseline
$77.7B (2020)
Current estimate
$140.9B (2024)
Cost growth
+81%
Units
634 → 634
Quantity change
0%
Unit-cost change
+81%
IOC
2029 → Early 2030s (TBD)
Schedule slip
—
Cost basis
BY
Confidence
high · reconciled
+81% REAL growth (BY2020) — the marquee case; drove the 2024 Nunn-McCurdy critical breach. Unit cost $118M → $162M (2020$). (CAPE's Aug-2020 estimate was $95.8B; $77.7B reflects the APB implied by DoD's official "81% over Milestone B.")

Documented events

Source: DoD Sentinel Nunn-McCurdy review (Jul 8 2024); CRS IF11681. Base-year 2020 $. Still "at least $141B" per GAO ICBM snapshot (Feb 2026); restructured Milestone-B estimate due ~end 2026.

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Drift — an independent project by Aous Abdo, built from public GAO, CRS and DoD sources. Cost growth has many causes; a larger number is not by itself evidence of mismanagement. How this is built · Explore the data →