Drift

RAH-66 Comanche

Comanche · Army · Boeing–Sikorsky · cancelled

−13% $39.9B (2000) → $34.6B (2002)
RAH-66 Comanche: cost trajectory from $39.9B in 2000 to $34.6B in 2002, −13% growth. Explore Comanche interactively → Download 1-page brief (PDF)
Baseline
$39.9B (2000)
Current estimate
$34.6B (2002)
Cost growth
−13%
Units
1213 → 650
Quantity change
−46%
Unit-cost change
+62%
IOC
2000s (planned) → Cancelled 2004
Schedule slip
—
Cost basis
BY
Confidence
high · reconciled
A truncation death spiral that ended in cancellation, now on one constant-dollar table (FY2004$): against the July 2000 baseline (1,213 aircraft) the Oct 2002 restructure cut the buy 46% to 650, so the total FELL 13% even as R&D grew 41% and per-aircraft cost rose 62% ($32.9M → $53.2M). The Army killed it Feb 2004 — 0 production aircraft, ~$6B R&D spent. (An earlier row paired procurement-only then-year figures quoted three years apart — that pair appears in no document.)

Documented events

Source: GAO-04-248 (Mar 2004), RAH-66 Comanche assessment, p.41 — Program Performance table, constant FY2004 $M: July 2000 development APB $39,865.6M / 1,213 aircraft vs Dec 2002 SAR estimate $34,577.0M / 650. Same table: R&D $8,905.1M → $12,572.5M (+41%), PAUC $32.9M → $53.2M (+61.9%). Terminated Feb 2004.

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Drift — an independent project by Aous Abdo · Analytica DSS, built from public GAO, CRS and DoD sources. Cost growth has many causes; a larger number is not by itself evidence of mismanagement. How this is built · Explore the data →