Drift

The anatomy of a cost overrun

Quantity change vs. unit-cost change — the death-spiral quadrant is fewer units at higher price.

Steepest cost growth

• WGS+265%
• SBIRS+263%
• JASSM+219%
• NPOESS+115%
• GMLRS+111%
• F-35+108%
• VH-71+100%
• B61-12+90%

Every figure in Drift is reconciled to a public GAO, CRS or DoD source, with then-year and base-year dollars kept distinct. Where no honest public figure exists, the program is excluded rather than estimated.

Drift — an independent project by Aous Abdo, built from public GAO, CRS and DoD sources. Cost growth has many causes; a larger number is not by itself evidence of mismanagement. How this is built · Explore the data →